So, how is the dear old world is doing financially? Good? Bad? Good news is, there are some words of consolances, and bad news is, we are yet to shake ourselves out of the economic mess. But let’s ponder on some of the good news that has been coming our way…a far cry when we started out this year.

Home Front.

First of all, parallel to the signs of easing economy turmoil globally, and following the two stimulus packages and interest rate cuts, the finance ministry has projected a global recovery in 2010.

Media reports quoted Second Finance Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Husni Mohamad Hanadzlah as saying that with the emerging signs of stabilisation, the International Monetary Fund has projected a global recovery of 2.5% in 2010.

 “With the emerging signs of stabilisation, the International Monetary Fund has projected global recovery in 2010 to record 2.5% growth,” he was quoted as saying.

Husni also noted that in preparation for Budget 2010, the ministry had received 68 memoranda from various groups so far, covering a wide range of issues and recommendations. “Some of the pertinent proposals from these memoranda will be deliberated in the focus groups,” he said.

Good vibes are also coming to another ministry that matters, the International Trade and Industry. Its minister, Datuk Mustapa Mohamed, recently informed that the country’s economy has shown signs of stabilising.

In a report he cited the magnitude and quantum of year-on-year declines in the overall industrial production index as well as across the manufacturing and electricity sectors had diminished in May 2009 as compared to May 2008.

“The Government is following closely the developments in the global markets where we do business. We are also actively monitoring the domestic situation at home,” Mustapa said.

At the same time, earlier, Mustapha also pointed out that Malaysia’s exports will recover later than expected and won’t be past the worst for another “couple” of months.

“It’ll probably be a couple more months before exports bottom out,” Mustapa told the wired agency, Bloomberg. “We thought it would happen earlier but unfortunately it will be later than expected.”

Trade is “still in a fairly sizeable negative territory,” Mustapa told the agency. “Exports are not likely to be positive for the full year. Next year, the outlook appears to be looking better. By the end of this year, it looks like exports will be back on track.”

Asian Front.

A more interesting outlook was given in a column written by Head of ADB's Office of Regional Economic Integration Jong-Wha Lee in the Stars Newspaper recently.

Titled “Will Asia’s recovery lead the way?” Lee wrote that economic indicators from developed economies remain mixed but Asia was showing much more favourable signs

“There are some signs of stabilisation – industrial output and consumer spending is, for example, falling much more slowly than they were,” Lee said. “But stabilisation does not mean imminent recovery.”

He noted that in the US and Europe, unemployment is still on the rise. Consumer and business confidence has not recovered. It is clear that the recession has yet to bottom out in the United States and Europe.

“In contrast, signs are much more favourable in Asia,” he said. “Markets, which are typically the first indicators of recovery, are rebounding much more sharply here.”

He added that Asia’s real economy is doing much better too. Industrial production in South Korea, Singapore, and Thailand has been rising in recent months.

“And while most economies in Asia have suffered their worst performance since the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis, we believe they have hit bottom,” he noted, adding that the Asian Development Bank forecasts that growth in gross domestic product (GDP) for emerging East Asia will still be 3% this year.

How about US?

So, what is the scenario in the US, the world’s most powerful economy? Well, the countries National Association for Business Economics' recently noted that the U.S. recession's grip on the economy appears to be easing but likely has not yet ended.

The NABE quarterly industry survey found that demand is stabilising, but a small majority of the 102 respondents said their firms had not yet seen the bottom.

The survey "provides new evidence that the U.S. recession is abating, but few signs of an immediate recovery," said Sara Johnson, managing director of global macroeconomics for IHS Global Insight, who helped analyze the report for the NABE.

"Industry demand was still declining in the second quarter of 2009, but the breadth of decline had narrowed considerably since late 2008, raising prospects for stabilization in the second half" of the year, she said in a Reuters report.

Slow & Steady

Whatever it is, the world is much wiser now, than, say, the 1929 recession. We too have learned from the 1997 crisis. In fact, our deputy prime minister recently shared with Africa, the Malaysian way of tackling the global economic and financial crisis.